Jul 31 2009
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Ibanez BTB 200 MKF Metallic Black Flat Bass Guitar
Emerging Europe - The Crisis and the Recovery
Emerging Europe: The Crisis and the Recovery
Chapter 1: The Regional Outlook
• While there are similar dynamics worth considering, we believe that a comparison between the Asian financial crisis in 1997/1998 and central and eastern Europe (CEE) in 2008/2009 holds only limited value. Indeed, with larger external asymmetries and a vastly differing global economic climate, we expect emerging Europe to fare worse over a longer time period. Our core scenario calls for a 4.2% aggregate regional real GDP growth contraction for CEE in 2009 and only 1.5% growth in 2010. ( http://www.bharatbook.com/detail.asp?id=129440&rt=Emerging-Europe-The-Crisis-and-the-Recovery.html )
• The elevation of systemic macroeconomic risks has prompted a reduction in almost all of our Emerging Europe sovereign risk ratings, with the median score falling to a record low ‘D’ . This reflects region-wide challenges to stability to which no individual economy will be wholly immune. Negative factors such as rising fiscal deficits, increased social instability, currency depreciation, worsening global credit conditions, and banking system insolvency risks will be shared across all the countries in the region.
• With floating currencies throughout the region taking a severe hit in recent months on the back of spiralling risk aversion and continued global deleveraging, we affirm our view that fundamental pressures on the region’s remaining fixed exchange rates will persist through the medium term. As such, we target devaluations of the Baltic and Bulgarian currencies as part of our core medium-term scenario .
• Political risks are set to rise across emerging Europe. Spiralling unemployment and public dissatisfaction with falling incomes will reduce government policymaking capacity and accentuate existing political tensions. We highlight the Baltics, Hungary, Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and Bosnia as particularly at risk of political uncertainty.
• In the aftermath of the CEE financial and economic crisis, we see trend growth settling at a lower rate over the long term, weighed down by the marked slowdown in credit expansion, continued deleveraging, and a need tocorrect the region’s substantial external asymmetries.
Chapter 2: The Key Economies
• Our 2009 and 2010 Russian growth forecasts are -4.0% and 1.1%, respectively. Private consumption growth in particular is set to contract markedly this year following on the heels of the external sector’s downturn in H208. We highlight the prolonged deterioration of domestic credit conditions alongside large scale capital outflows as reasons to remain very negative the overall Russian economic outlook.
• Turkey is facing its largest economic contraction in at least two decades, with our real GDP growth forecast at -5.7%. While an improvement in the net export component and rise in government consumption should partly offset the downtrend, the potential growth from this will be limited, especially as Ankara will be fiscally constrained by an IMF Standby Arrangement.
• The latest data provided by the Central Statistical Office shows Polish economic growth slowing to 2.9% y-o-y during Q408 from 4.8% the previous quarter. We expect growth to continue slowing through 2009, with the economy likely to dip into recession during H209. Despite the deterioration in Poland’s macroeconomic fundamentals, we nonetheless believe that the economy will emerge as the regional outperformer, especially compared with heavily trade dependent Czech Republic and post fiscal crisis Hungary.
• Ukraine will head into a deep recession in 2009, with real GDP set to contract by 14.7%. Beyond 2009, we expect the economic recovery in Ukraine’s main trading partners, and the likely benefits that will arise from hosting the 2012 UEFA football championship, will help bring growth back into positive territory in 2010 and beyond, with real GDP expected to expand by an average 4.3% between 2011-2013.
• We expect Czech GDP to contract by 2.1% in 2009, as external demand, domestic consumption and capital investment all shrink. That said, we believe that the country is at considerably less risk of a systemic financial crisis than many other emerging European economies, and we forecast a modest recovery in 2010.
• Hungary’s economy is set to contract by 6.4% in real terms in 2009 - the worst recession since the country’s 1991 transition to market capitalism - as foreign capital inflows, exports and domestic consumption all collapse. We forecast a recovery to 2.6% growth in 2011, but caution that the economic outlook will remain bleak until well into H210.
• The sharp fall in Romanian real GDP growth to 2.9% in Q4 (from 9.1% in Q3) supports our view that the country will head into recession in 2009. We forecast real GDP to contract by 4.3% in 2009, as external demand for Romanian goods falls, capital inflows slow and consumer and business confidence weakens, weighing on domestic consumption.
Chapter 3: The Global Outlook
• It is clear that the severity and the duration of this global recession will easily surpass those of any post-war downturn. Our global growth forecast falls to -2.3% in 2009 (in US$ nominal GDP-weighted terms), mainly as a result of downward revisions to major economies including Germany, Japan, and the United States. We are forecasting only a modest recovery by 2010, with just 1.7% global growth.
• In the past, we have cautioned that there was a chance that an L-shaped recession could, given the right conditions, become a ‘W’-shaped recession. That is, down, up, and back down again. The chances of such a scenario have increased and are probably nearing one in three, and could possibly even become our core scenario.
• The deteriorating global macroeconomic outlook, high levels of leverage, and a broken business model will combine to spell trouble for the financial services sector in 2009. The biggest worries come out of Europe, where eurozone, UK and Swiss banks alike have the deadly combination of high financial leverage and heavy exposure to emerging markets.
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